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中国重汽:利润率上升,维持“收集”

发布时间:2019-09-24    研究机构:国泰君安证券

Sinotruk’s 1H19net profit increased 3.1% yoy to RMB2,493million,better than our expectation. Revenue was flat in 1H19, as sales volume forHDT and LDT decreased by 0.9% yoy and 5.0% yoy, respectively. However,ASP increased yoy by 4.8% and 9.8% for HDT and LDT, respectively. Thatalso translates to better gross margin in the first half, up 1.4ppts yoy to19.5%. Both selling expense and administrative expense were also wellcontrolled. However, R&D expense soared 24.5% yoy and the increasedeffective tax rate dragged net margin, which was only up by 0.1ppts to 7.2%.

We have increased our profit forecasts by 3.6%/ 3.9%/ 2.9% in 2019to2021, respectively. We have reduced sales assumptions for both HDT andLDT as the Company was behind industry average. However, we have liftedgross margin assumptions as ASP in 1H19indicates sales mix improvement.

We maintain our investment rating as "Accumulate" but revise down TPto HK$12.60, which represents 7.9x 2019PER and 7.5x 2020PER, 1.2x2019PBR and 1.1x 2020PBR. Despite slight increase in shareholders’ profitforecast, our TP represents a lower valuation as we think the unstableeconomic environment and below-average truck sales continue to suppressvaluation. Nonetheless, the current valuation is attractive and given theCompany’s strong background in both products and management restructureeffort, we believe it’s an opportunity to accumulate at the current price point.

中国重汽(000951)2019年上半年净利润同比增长3.1%至人民币2,493百万元,好于我们的预期。

重卡和轻卡的销量分别同比下降0.9%和5.0%,使2019年上半年收入持平。然而,重卡和轻卡的平均售价分别同比上升4.8%和9.8%。这也转化为上半年更好的毛利率,其同比上涨1.4个百分点至19.5%。销售费用和管理费用也得到很好的控制。然而,研发费用同比飙升24.5%,以及实际税率上升,拖累净利率仅上升0.1个百分点至7.2%。

我们将2019年至2021年的盈利预测分别上调3.6%/ 3.9%/ 2.9%。我们降低了重卡和轻卡的销售假设,因为公司落后于行业平均水平。然而,我们提高了毛利率假设,因为2019年上半年的平均售价表明销售组合有所改善。

我们维持投资评级为“收集”但下调目标价至12.60港元,相当于7.9倍2019年市盈率和7.5倍2020年市盈率,1.2倍2019年市净率和1.1倍2020年市净率。尽管预测股东利润略有增加,我们的目标价对应较低估值是由于我们认为不稳定的经济环境和低于平均水平的卡车销售将继续抑制估值。尽管如此,鉴于公司在产品和管理层重组的背景下,目前的估值具有吸引力,我们认为当前价格有收集机会。

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